First Quarter Over/Under Trends in Playoffs: What They Reveal About Q2 - Q4 Scoring

The NBA playoffs bring the high-stakes action to sports bettors. I want you to think of momentum not just as a buzzword but as a measurable phenomenon. As bettors, we focus on pregame totals, spreads, money lines, and player status. But what if the most significant predictive edge was right in front of our noses the whole time: the first quarter? 

After analyzing over 250 quarters from the 2025 NBA playoffs, I found a striking pattern. Games that hit the over in the first quarter are far more likely to continue that trajectory in the following quarters. Conversely, games that hit the under often continue to do so. For smart bettors like ourselves, why are we not taking advantage of it? Let's break down the data and trends to find a tactical approach for exploiting the book's live betting quarter options.

That's a ticket from last night's game. First quarter hit the over, so we bet accordingly.

Here's the baseline distribution across all first quarters:

Q1 Over 55.5 points: 41 games (32.3%)

Q1 Under 55.5 points: 86 games (67.7%)

We have a clear starting point: the majority of playoff games open slowly. This trend could be due to tightened rotations, aslower pace, or Thibs bringing the defensive elbow grease of Mitchell Robinson and Delon Wright. Rarely do bettors swim upstream when unthinkingly betting a market, but that's what happened if you bet live quarter O/U after the first.

When Q1 Went OVER:

Total Games: 41

Games that cleared 55.5 points in the first 12 minutes:

Quarter Over Under Over%

Q2 22 19 53.7%

Q3 23 18 56.1%

Q4 24 17 58.5%

Once a game starts fast, it tends to stay fast. Over half of all second, third, and fourth quarters following a Q1 over also went over. This tendency is transparent late in games, as 4th-quarter overs occur almost 59% of the time. That's not random.

When Q1 Went UNDER:

Total Games: 86

Games that did not clear 55.5 points in the first 12 minutes:

Quarter Over Under Under%

Q2 29 57 66.3%

Q3 32 54 62.8%

Q4 31 55 64.0%

A slow start tends to remain sluggish, and seeing three data points over 60% is bananas. Seasoned bettors know edges are easier to find on unders. So, why are the books missing this? Is the field not betting it? Whatever NBA players eat for breakfast that morning creates a quarter-over/under tendency through the rest of the day.

Live quarter betting offers value most are not taking advantage of, especially in the playoffs. The main reason is that the NBA has four quarters to hit these trends. We need to identify the tempo and bet accordingly based on the first-quarter trends. The first 12 minutes are a complimentary forecasting tool for our use.

So the next time you're watching a playoff game and see 31 - 28 in the first quarter? You have data to support the trend of where the scoring will end up each quarter (OVER! Q2 - 4).

How about 22 - 19? UNDER! Q2 - 4.

If you bet these trends over the NBA playoffs, you'd be sitting with an ROI of 20.47%. Play the trends and enjoy long-term profits.